Stability in a Sea of Volatility: The Predictive Power of Elite Endorsements in the 2012 Republican Presidential Primary

Abstract

This analysis builds on previous scholarship by explaining the 2012 Republican Primary through elite endorsements, polls and trends in Internet search volume. Consistent with previous research, elite endorsements were found to be a significant predictor in the 2012 contest. Trends in Internet search volume were found to correlate with poll support for candidates, especially relatively unknown candidates, or candidates outside of their home territories. Contrary to previous scholarship, a subgroup of elite endorsers were found to respond directly to popular support when making their decision.