Markov modeling of moving target defense games
van Dijk, Marten
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Citation (published version)Hoda Maleki, Saeed Valizadeh, William Koch, Azer Bestavros, Marten van Dijk. 2016. "Markov Modeling of Moving Target Defense Games." MTD'16: PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2016 ACM WORKSHOP ON MOVING TARGET DEFENSE. ACM Workshop on Moving Target Defense. Vienna, AUSTRIA, 2016-10-24. p. 81-92
We introduce a Markov-model-based framework for Moving Target Defense (MTD) analysis. The framework allows modeling of a broad range of MTD strategies, provides general theorems about how the probability of a successful adversary defeating an MTD strategy is related to the amount of time/cost spent by the adversary, and shows how a multilevel composition of MTD strategies can be analyzed by a straightforward combination of the analysis for each one of these strategies. Within the proposed framework we define the concept of security capacity which measures the strength or effectiveness of an MTD strategy: the security capacity depends on MTD specific parameters and more general system parameters. We apply our framework to two concrete MTD strategies.