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dc.contributor.authorEstrada, Franciscoen_US
dc.contributor.authorPerron, Pierreen_US
dc.contributor.authorGay-García, Carlosen_US
dc.contributor.authorMartínez-López, Benjamínen_US
dc.coverage.spatialUnited Statesen_US
dc.date2013-02-20
dc.date.accessioned2018-01-23T19:48:16Z
dc.date.available2018-01-23T19:48:16Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.identifierhttps://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23555866
dc.identifier.citationFrancisco Estrada, Pierre Perron, Carlos Gay-García, Benjamín Martínez-López. 2013. "A time-series analysis of the 20th century climate simulations produced for the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report.." PLoS One, Volume 8, Issue 3, pp. e60017.
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2144/26283
dc.description.abstractIn this paper evidence of anthropogenic influence over the warming of the 20th century is presented and the debate regarding the time-series properties of global temperatures is addressed in depth. The 20th century global temperature simulations produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report and a set of the radiative forcing series used to drive them are analyzed using modern econometric techniques. Results show that both temperatures and radiative forcing series share similar time-series properties and a common nonlinear secular movement. This long-term co-movement is characterized by the existence of time-ordered breaks in the slope of their trend functions. The evidence presented in this paper suggests that while natural forcing factors may help explain the warming of the first part of the century, anthropogenic forcing has been its main driver since the 1970's. In terms of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, significant anthropogenic interference with the climate system has already occurred and the current climate models are capable of accurately simulating the response of the climate system, even if it consists in a rapid or abrupt change, to changes in external forcing factors. This paper presents a new methodological approach for conducting time-series based attribution studies.en_US
dc.languageeng
dc.relation.ispartofPLoS One
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectScience & technologyen_US
dc.subjectStationary noise componenten_US
dc.subjectUnit-rooten_US
dc.subjectClimateen_US
dc.subjectClimate Changeen_US
dc.subjectModels, theoreticalen_US
dc.subjectTemperatureen_US
dc.titleA time-series analysis of the 20th century climate simulations produced for the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report.en_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0060017
pubs.elements-sourcepubmeden_US
pubs.notesEmbargo: Not knownen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston Universityen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciencesen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciences, Department of Economicsen_US
pubs.publication-statusPublisheden_US


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Attribution 4.0 International
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International