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dc.contributor.authorEstrada, Franciscoen_US
dc.contributor.authorPerron, Pierreen_US
dc.contributor.authorMartinez-Lopez, Benjaminen_US
dc.date.accessioned2018-02-23T15:29:43Z
dc.date.available2018-02-23T15:29:43Z
dc.date.issued2013-12-01
dc.identifierhttp://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000327799500020&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=6e74115fe3da270499c3d65c9b17d654
dc.identifier.citationFrancisco Estrada, Pierre Perron, Benjamin Martinez-Lopez. 2013. "Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes." NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp. 1050 - 1055 (6).
dc.identifier.issn1752-0894
dc.identifier.issn1752-0908
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2144/27169
dc.description.abstractThe warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipF.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico)en_US
dc.format.extent1050 - 1055 (6)en_US
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUPen_US
dc.relation.ispartofNATURE GEOSCIENCE
dc.subjectScience & technologyen_US
dc.subjectPhysical sciencesen_US
dc.subjectGeosciencesen_US
dc.subjectGeologyen_US
dc.subjectSurface air temperatureen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectMeteorology & atmospheric sciencesen_US
dc.titleStatistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/NGEO1999
pubs.elements-sourceweb-of-scienceen_US
pubs.notesEmbargo: Not knownen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston Universityen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciencesen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciences, Department of Economicsen_US
pubs.publication-statusPublisheden_US


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