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dc.contributor.authorEstrada, Franciscoen_US
dc.contributor.authorPerron, Pierreen_US
dc.contributor.authorMartinez-Lopez, Benjaminen_US
dc.date.accessioned2018-02-23T15:29:43Z
dc.date.available2018-02-23T15:29:43Z
dc.date.issued2013-12-01
dc.identifierhttp://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000327799500020&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=6e74115fe3da270499c3d65c9b17d654
dc.identifier.citationFrancisco Estrada, Pierre Perron, Benjamin Martinez-Lopez. 2013. "Statistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changes." NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Volume 6, Issue 12, pp. 1050 - 1055 (6).
dc.identifier.issn1752-0894
dc.identifier.issn1752-0908
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2144/27169
dc.description.abstractThe warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 °C over the past century. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.
dc.description.sponsorshipF.E. acknowledges financial support from the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (http://www.conacyt.gob.mx) under grant CONACYT-310026, as well as from PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. (CONACYT-310026 - Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia; PASPA DGAPA of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico)en_US
dc.format.extent1050 - 1055 (6)en_US
dc.languageEnglishen_US
dc.publisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUPen_US
dc.relation.ispartofNATURE GEOSCIENCEen_US
dc.subjectScience & technologyen_US
dc.subjectPhysical sciencesen_US
dc.subjectGeosciencesen_US
dc.subjectGeologyen_US
dc.subjectSurface air temperatureen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectMeteorology & atmospheric sciencesen_US
dc.titleStatistically derived contributions of diverse human influences to twentieth-century temperature changesen_US
dc.typeArticle
dc.identifier.doi10.1038/NGEO1999
pubs.elements-sourceweb-of-scienceen_US
pubs.notesEmbargo: Not knownen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston Universityen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciencesen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciences, Department of Economicsen_US
pubs.publication-statusPublisheden_US


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