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dc.contributor.authorMistry, Malcolm N.en_US
dc.contributor.authorSue Wing, Ianen_US
dc.contributor.authorDe Cian, Enricaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2018-02-28T18:35:41Z
dc.date.available2018-02-28T18:35:41Z
dc.date.issued2017-07-01
dc.identifier.citationMalcolm N Mistry, Ian Sue Wing, Enrica De Cian. 2017. "Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change." Environmental Research Letters, Volume 12, Issue 7:075007. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa788c
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2144/27335
dc.description.abstractGlobal gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981–2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Department of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. This disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs' responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipGEO-1240507 - US National Science Foundation ; US Department of Energy Office of Science; DE-SC0005171; DE-SC0016162en_US
dc.description.urihttp://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa788c
dc.format.extent075007 - 075007en_US
dc.relation.ispartofEnvironmental Research Letters
dc.rights© 2017 IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.en_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.subjectMeteorology & atmospheric sciencesen_US
dc.titleSimulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate changeen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.description.versionPublished versionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1088/1748-9326/aa788c
pubs.elements-sourcecrossrefen_US
pubs.notesjournal_title: Environmental Research Letters article_type: lett article_title: Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change copyright_information: © 2017 IOP Publishing Ltd license_information: cc-by Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. date_received: 2016-11-08 date_accepted: 2017-06-09 date_epub: 2017-07-10en_US
pubs.notesEmbargo: Not knownen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston Universityen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciencesen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciences, Department of Earth & Environmenten_US
pubs.publication-statusPublisheden_US
dc.date.online2017-07-10


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© 2017 IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as © 2017 IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.