Using foreCAT deflections and rotations to constrain the early evolution of CMEs
Colaninno, R. C.
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Citation (published version)C Kay, M Opher, RC Colaninno, A Vourlidas. 2016. "USING ForeCAT DEFLECTIONS AND ROTATIONS TO CONSTRAIN THE EARLY EVOLUTION OF CMEs." ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL, v. 827, Issue 1, pp. ? - ? (9). https://doi.org/10.3847/0004-637X/827/1/70
To accurately predict the space weather effects of the impacts of coronal mass ejection (CME) at Earth one must know if and when a CME will impact Earth and the CME parameters upon impact. In 2015 Kay et al. presented Forecasting a CME's Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT), a model for CME deflections based on the magnetic forces from the background solar magnetic field. Knowing the deflection and rotation of a CME enables prediction of Earth impacts and the orientation of the CME upon impact. We first reconstruct the positions of the 2010 April 8 and the 2012 July 12 CMEs from the observations. The first of these CMEs exhibits significant deflection and rotation (34° deflection and 58° rotation), while the second shows almost no deflection or rotation (<3° each). Using ForeCAT, we explore a range of initial parameters, such as the CME's location and size, and find parameters that can successfully reproduce the behavior for each CME. Additionally, since the deflection depends strongly on the behavior of a CME in the low corona, we are able to constrain the expansion and propagation of these CMEs in the low corona.
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