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dc.contributor.authorEstrada, Franciscoen_US
dc.contributor.authorPerron, Pierreen_US
dc.date.accessioned2019-05-31T15:30:29Z
dc.date.available2019-05-31T15:30:29Z
dc.date.issued2019-01-01
dc.identifierhttp://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000457543300012&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=6e74115fe3da270499c3d65c9b17d654
dc.identifier.citationFrancisco Estrada, Pierre Perron. 2019. "Causality from long-lived radiative forcings to the climate trend." ANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES, Volume 1436, Issue 1, pp. 195 - 205 (11). https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.13923
dc.identifier.issn0077-8923
dc.identifier.issn1749-6632
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2144/35758
dc.description.abstractIn our study, we present a purely statistical observations‐based model‐free analysis that provides evidence about Granger causality (GC) from long‐lived radiative forcings (LLRFs) to the climate trend (CT). This relies on having locally ordered breaks in the slopes of the trend functions of LLRF and the CT, with the break for LLRF occurring before that of the CT and with the slope changes being of the same sign. The empirical evidence indicates that these conditions are satisfied empirically using standard global surface temperature series and an aggregate measure of LLRF (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons). We also discuss why the presence of broken trends can lead one to conclude in favor of GC when using standard methods even if the noise function in LLRF is negligible.en_US
dc.format.extentp. 195 - 205en_US
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherWILEYen_US
dc.relation.ispartofANNALS OF THE NEW YORK ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
dc.rightsAttribution 4.0 Internationalen_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectScience & technologyen_US
dc.subjectMultidisciplinary sciencesen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectAttributionen_US
dc.subjectCausalityen_US
dc.subjectEconometric methodsen_US
dc.subjectTime seriesen_US
dc.subjectGranger causalityen_US
dc.subjectStatistical analysisen_US
dc.subjectTemperatureen_US
dc.subjectBreaksen_US
dc.subjectCointegrationen_US
dc.subjectOscillationen_US
dc.subjectModelsen_US
dc.titleCausality from long-lived radiative forcings to the climate trenden_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.description.versionPublished versionen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1111/nyas.13923
pubs.elements-sourceweb-of-scienceen_US
pubs.notesEmbargo: No embargoen_US
pubs.notesopen accessen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston Universityen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciencesen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciences, Department of Economicsen_US
pubs.publication-statusPublisheden_US
dc.identifier.mycv395017


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Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International