Long-term U.S transportation electricity use considering the effect of autonomous-vehicles: Estimates & policy observations

Date Issued
2018-11Publisher Version
10.1016/j.enpol.2018.07.033Author(s)
Fox-Penner, Peter
Gorman, Will
Hatch, Jennifer
Metadata
Show full item recordPermanent Link
https://hdl.handle.net/2144/39186Abstract
In this paper, we model three layers of transportation disruption – first electrification, then autonomy, and finally sharing and pooling – in order to project transportation electricity demand and greenhouse gas emissions in the United States to 2050. Using an expanded kaya identity framework, we model vehicle stock, energy intensity, and vehicle miles traveled, progressively considering the effects of each of these three disruptions. We find that electricity use from light duty vehicle transport will likely be in the 570–1140 TWh range, 13–26%, respectively, of total electricity demand in 2050. Depending on the pace at which the electric sector decarbonizes, this increase in electric demand could correspond to a decrease in LDV greenhouse gas emissions of up to 80%. In the near term, rapid and complete transport electrification with a carbon-free grid should remain the cornerstones of transport decarbonization policy. However, long-term policy should also aim to mitigate autonomous vehicles’ potential to increase driving mileage, urban and suburban sprawl, and traffic congestion while incentivizing potential energy efficiency improvements through both better system management and the lightweighting of an accident-free vehicle fleet.
Rights
© 2018 The Authors. Open Access: This article is available under the Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND license and permits non-commercial use of the work as published, without adaptation or alteration provided the work is fully attributed.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Small business investment company common stocks as an investment vehicle
Farrell, Richard A. (Boston University, 1963) -
Calligraphy: A Vehicle to Self-Reflection
Boukerroui, Mohand Tahar (2013-12-19)As an auto-ethnographic study, “Calligraphy: A Vehicle to Self-Reflection” was designed to explore the art of Arabic calligraphy and its possibilities. The driving question of this research was: How can understanding ... -
Fiction as a vehicle for truth: moving beyond the ontic conception
Bokulich, Alisa (Oxford University Press (OUP), 2016-07)Despite widespread evidence that fictional models play an explanatory role in science, resistance remains to the idea that fictions can explain. A central source of this resistance is a particular view about what explanations ...