Data and code for: Testing Hypotheses About Glacial Dynamics and the Stage 11 Paradox Using a Statistical Model of Paleo-Climate
Kaufmann, Robert K.
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Citation (published version)Kaufmann, R.K., and Pretis, F., 2020, Data and code for: Testing Hypotheses About Glacial Dynamics and the Stage 11 Paradox Using a Statistical Model of Paleo-Climate. OpenBU, https://hdl.handle.net/2144/40340.
To test hypotheses about glacial dynamics, the Mid-Brunhes event, and the stage 11 paradox, we evaluate the ability of a statistical model to simulate climate during the previous ~800,000 years. Throughout this period, the model simulates the timing and magnitude of glacial cycles, including the saw-tooth pattern in which ice accumulates gradually and ablates rapidly, without nonlinearities or threshold effects. This suggests that nonlinearities and/or threshold effects do not play a critical role in glacial cycles. Furthermore, model accuracy throughout the previous ~800,000 years suggest that changes in glacial cycles associated with the Mid-Brunhes event, which occurs near the division between the out-of-sample period and the in-sample period, are not caused by changes in the dynamics of the climate system. Conversely, poor model performance during MIS stage 11 and Termination V is consistent with arguments that the ‘stage 11 paradox’ represents a mismatch between orbital geometry and climate. Statistical orderings of simulation errors indicate that periods of reduced accuracy start with significant reductions in the model’s ability to simulate carbon dioxide, non-sea-salt sodium, and non-sea-salt calcium. Their importance suggests that the stage 11 paradox is generated by changes in atmospheric and/or oceanic circulation that affect ocean ventilation of carbon dioxide.
These data and code can be used to reproduce the results described in the paper Testing Hypotheses About Glacial Dynamics and the Stage 11 Paradox Using a Statistical Model of Paleo-Climate that is submitted for peer review in Climate of the Past.
RightsThis dataset is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/).