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dc.contributor.authorRedmond, Miranda D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorLaw, Darin J.en_US
dc.contributor.authorField, Jason P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMeneses, Nashellyen_US
dc.contributor.authorCarroll, Charles J. W.en_US
dc.contributor.authorWion, Andreas P.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBreshears, David D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorCobb, Neil S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorDietze, Michael C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGallery, Rachel E.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-13T17:38:30Z
dc.date.available2020-05-13T17:38:30Z
dc.identifier.citationMiranda D Redmond, Darin J Law, Jason P Field, Nashelly Meneses, Charles JW Carroll, Andreas P Wion, David D Breshears, Neil S Cobb, Michael C Dietze, Rachel E Gallery. "Targeting Extreme Events: Complementing Near-Term Ecological Forecasting With Rapid Experiments and Regional Surveys." Frontiers in Environmental Science, Volume 7, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00183
dc.identifier.issn2296-665X
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/2144/40831
dc.description.abstractEcologists are improving predictive capability using near-term ecological forecasts, in which predictions are made iteratively and publically to increase transparency, rate of learning, and maximize utility. Ongoing ecological forecasting efforts focus mostly on long-termdatasets of continuous variables, such as CO2 fluxes, ormore abrupt variables, such as phenological events or algal blooms. Generally lacking from these forecasting efforts is the integration of short-term, opportunistic data concurrent with developing climate extremes such as drought.We posit that incorporating targeted experiments and regional surveys, implemented rapidly during developing extreme events, into current forecasting efforts will ultimately enhance our ability to forecast ecological responses to climate extremes, which are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity. We highlight a project, “chasing tree die-off,” in which we coupled an experiment with regional-scale observational field surveys during a developing severe drought to test and improve forecasts of tree die-off. General insights to consider in incorporating this approach include: (1) tracking developing climate extremes in near-real time to efficiently ramp up measurements rapidly and, if feasible, initiate an experiment quickly—including funding and site selection challenges; (2) accepting uncertainty in projected extreme climatic events and adjusting sampling design over-time as needed, especially given the spatially heterogeneous nature of many ecological disturbances; and (3) producing timely and iterative output. In summary, targeted experiments and regional surveys implemented rapidly during developing extreme climatic events offer promise to efficiently (both financially and logistically) improve our ability to forecast ecological responses to climate extremes.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00183/full
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherFrontiers Media SAen_US
dc.relation.ispartofFrontiers in Environmental Science
dc.rights"Copyright © 2019 Redmond, Law, Field, Meneses, Carroll, Wion, Breshears, Cobb, Dietze and Gallery. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms."en_US
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectEcological forecastingen_US
dc.subjectAdaptive monitoringen_US
dc.subjectAnticipatory scienceen_US
dc.subjectDisturbanceen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectClimate extremesen_US
dc.subjectExtreme climate eventen_US
dc.subjectDroughten_US
dc.titleTargeting extreme events: complementing near-term ecological forecasting with rapid experiments and regional surveysen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fenvs.2019.00183
pubs.elements-sourcecrossrefen_US
pubs.notesEmbargo: No embargoen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston Universityen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciencesen_US
pubs.organisational-groupBoston University, College of Arts & Sciences, Department of Earth & Environmenten_US
pubs.publication-statusPublished onlineen_US
dc.date.online2019-11-27
dc.identifier.orcid0000-0002-2324-2518 (Dietze, Michael C)
dc.description.oaversionPublished version
dc.identifier.mycv540741


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"Copyright © 2019 Redmond, Law, Field, Meneses, Carroll, Wion, Breshears, Cobb, Dietze and Gallery. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms."
Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as "Copyright © 2019 Redmond, Law, Field, Meneses, Carroll, Wion, Breshears, Cobb, Dietze and Gallery. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms."