Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based analysis
Date
2021
Authors
Van Egeren, Debra
Stoddard, Madison
Novokhodko, Alexander
Rogers, Michael S.
Joseph-McCarthy, Diane
Zetter, Bruce
Chakravarty, Arijit
Version
Published version
OA Version
Citation
D. Van Egeren, M. Stoddard, A. Novokhodko, M.S. Rogers, D. Joseph-McCarthy, B. Zetter, A. Chakravarty. 2021. "Rapid relaxation of pandemic restrictions after vaccine rollout favors growth of SARS-CoV-2 variants: A model-based analysis.." PLoS One, Volume 16, Issue 11, pp. e0258997 - ?. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258997
Abstract
The development and deployment of several SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in a little over a year is an unprecedented achievement of modern medicine. The high levels of efficacy against transmission for some of these vaccines makes it feasible to use them to suppress SARS-CoV-2 altogether in regions with high vaccine acceptance. However, viral variants with reduced susceptibility to vaccinal and natural immunity threaten the utility of vaccines, particularly in scenarios where a return to pre-pandemic conditions occurs before the suppression of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. In this work we model the situation in the United States in May-June 2021, to demonstrate how pre-existing variants of SARS-CoV-2 may cause a rebound wave of COVID-19 in a matter of months under a certain set of conditions. A high burden of morbidity (and likely mortality) remains possible, even if the vaccines are partially effective against new variants and widely accepted. Our modeling suggests that variants that are already present within the population may be capable of quickly defeating the vaccines as a public health intervention, a serious potential limitation for strategies that emphasize rapid reopening before achieving control of SARS-CoV-2.
Description
License
Copyright: © 2021 Van Egeren et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.