Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics
Files
Accepted manuscript
Date
2021-03
Authors
Nova, Nicole
Deyle, Ethan R.
Shocket, Marta S.
MacDonald, Andrew J.
Childs, Marissa L.
Rypdal, Martin
Sugihara, George
Mordecai, Erin A.
Version
Accepted manuscript
OA Version
Citation
N. Nova, E.R. Deyle, M.S. Shocket, A.J. MacDonald, M.L. Childs, M. Rypdal, G. Sugihara, E.A. Mordecai. 2021. "Susceptible host availability modulates climate effects on dengue dynamics.." Ecol Lett, Volume 24, Issue 3, pp. 415 - 425. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13652
Abstract
Experiments and models suggest that climate affects mosquito-borne disease transmission. However, disease transmission involves complex nonlinear interactions between climate and population dynamics, which makes detecting climate drivers at the population level challenging. By analysing incidence data, estimated susceptible population size, and climate data with methods based on nonlinear time series analysis (collectively referred to as empirical dynamic modelling), we identified drivers and their interactive effects on dengue dynamics in San Juan, Puerto Rico. Climatic forcing arose only when susceptible availability was high: temperature and rainfall had net positive and negative effects respectively. By capturing mechanistic, nonlinear and context-dependent effects of population susceptibility, temperature and rainfall on dengue transmission empirically, our model improves forecast skill over recent, state-of-the-art models for dengue incidence. Together, these results provide empirical evidence that the interdependence of host population susceptibility and climate drives dengue dynamics in a nonlinear and complex, yet predictable way.