Econometrically-estimated weather sensitivities and projections of mid-century climate change impacts on economic systems
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Citation
Abstract
By 2050, global food and energy production systems will face critical pressure. The supply of crop is to be impacted through secular shocks to land productivity whose uncertain implications balance between weather change-driven crop yield declines modulated by farmers’ adaptation and the potentially offsetting effect of CO2 fertilization (CFE). In temperate mega-cities, sectors’ fuel demand sensitivity and the physical properties of buildings will determine the extent to which future shifts in extreme heat and cold-season temperatures alter energy demand. The final co-occurrence of energy insecurity and climate change, because it reduces households’ adaptation capacity to outdoor temperatures, poses significant health concerns.This dissertation quantifies climate change impacts on human economic systems: agriculture, energy and health. In the three sectors, we highlight how the balance of forces has played out historically and geographically and what, given both supply and demand determinants, the likely socio-economic implications are circa-2050.
First, we use a panel dataset of gridded annual crop yields and investigate the global temperature, precipitation, CFE and irrigation responses of four crops responsible for 75% of world’s calorie intake. Projecting climatically-driven changes, by coupling our estimated elasticities with an ensemble of climate model midcentury simulations, we find substantial agreement on average weather-driven crop yield losses offset by CFE. We suggest that previous agricultural productivity estimates may have overstated technical progress by failing to distinguish it from the underlying contribution of CO2.
Second, we elucidate heterogeneity in the demand responses to temperature of different fuels in conjunction with the sector building stock demography of temperate NYC. Combining building-level monthly electricity and gas disclosures with high spatial- and temporal-resolution weather data and hourly-downscaled climate forecasts, we predict net aggregate energy changes and decompose future fuel, sector and season disparities.
Third, we review the literature assessing energy insecurity effects on health. Our hypothesis is that gaps in energy use for adaptation to temperature extremes produce health inequities at all developmental stages. Beyond individual risk factors, we look at structurally interconnected drivers and show that the poorest populations are most likely to bear the burdens of conflicting mitigation and adaptation efforts in the warming future.
Description
2025
License
Attribution 4.0 International