Environmental variability and fishing effects on the Pacific sardine fisheries in the Gulf of California
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Published version
Date
2021-05
Authors
Giron-Nava, Alfredo
Ezcurra, Exequiel
Brias, Antoine
Velarde, Enriqueta
Deyle, Ethan
Cisneros-Montemayor, Andrés M.
Munch, Stephan B.
Sugihara, George
Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio
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Published version
OA Version
Citation
A. Giron-Nava, E. Ezcurra, A. Brias, E. Velarde, E. Deyle, A.M. Cisneros-Montemayor, S.B. Munch, G. Sugihara, O. Aburto-Oropeza. 2021. "Environmental variability and fishing effects on the Pacific sardine fisheries in the Gulf of California" Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Volume 78, Issue 5, pp.623-630. https://doi.org/10.1139/cjfas-2020-0010
Abstract
Small pelagic fish support some of the largest fisheries globally, yet there is an ongoing debate about the magnitude of the impacts of environmental processes and fishing activities on target species. We use a nonparametric, nonlinear approach to quantify these effects on the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the Gulf of California. We show that the effect of fishing pressure and environmental variability are comparable. Furthermore, when predicting total catches, the best models account for both drivers. By using empirical dynamic programming with average environmental conditions, we calculated optimal policies to ensure long-term sustainable fisheries. The first policy, the equilibrium maximum sustainable yield, suggests that the fishery could sustain an annual catch of ∼2.16 × 105 tonnes. The second policy with dynamic optimal effort, reveals that the effort from 2 to 4 years ago impacts the current maximum sustainable effort. Consecutive years of high effort require a reduction to let the stock recover. Our work highlights a new framework that embraces the complex processes that drive fisheries population dynamics yet produces simple and robust advice to ensure long-term sustainable fisheries.
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Copyright remains with the author(s) or their institution(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.