Tracing Patterns of Divergence in Arms Trade after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War: Case Studies of Turkey and India
Date
2023-03-31
DOI
Authors
Captan, Fiona
Version
OA Version
Citation
Abstract
What causes states to diverge from their historic alliances/alignments? This paper examines two case studies - Turkey and India - focusing on the degree to which alliances, arms transfers, and conflict alter each state’s status quo. Turkey joined the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1952 to contend with threats emanating from the Soviet Union. Today, Ankara’s foreign/defense policy diverges from that of NATO and the West in its effort to regain Ottoman-like control in the region and thus decrease dependence on Western military support. Turkey has transitioned from seeking Western aid and alignment to deter Russian aggression to being the second most powerful army in NATO with a sturdy domestic defense industry that has given it significant regional bargaining power. Initiating controversial arms deals with U.S. and Western adversaries, developing a domestic defense industry, and demonstrating the effectiveness of Turkish defense products in the Russia-Ukraine War, Ankara has decreased its alignment with NATO.
India, along with Australia, Japan, and the United States, formed the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (more commonly known as the Quad) in 2007 to counter Chinese regional aggression. While the Soviet Union/Russia historically dominated India’s arms imports, the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War demonstrated the inferiority of Russian weapons. Further, a declining Russian arms industry threatens arms exports to India and India’s domestic security against the People's Republic of China (PRC). Given minimal Russian influence on India’s military doctrine, New Delhi is determined to diversify its arms suppliers to become less dependent on Russia and align more with the West and the Quad, thus edging closer to abandoning its decades-long relationship with Russia. Turkey and India are seemingly moving in different directions from their historical ties with NATO and Russia, respectively. By studying these two mid-powers in complicated alliances/alignments, we can see the different routes states take to move away from the status quo.
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License
Attribution-NoDerivs 3.0 United States