Simulating Russia’s and other large economies’ challenging and interconnected transitions
Files
First author draft
Date
2016-03-11
DOI
Authors
Benzell, Seth
Goryunov, Eugene
Kazakova, Maria
Lagarda, Guillermo
Nesterova, Kristina
Kotlikoff, Laurence
Version
OA Version
First author draft
Citation
Seth Benzell, Eugene Goryunov, Maria Kazakova, Guillermo Lagarda, Kristina Nesterova, Laurence Kotlikoff. 2016. "Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions." https://doi.org/10.3386/w21269
Abstract
This paper develops a large-scale, dynamic life-cycle model to simulate Russia’s demographic and fiscal transition under favorable and unfavorable fossil-fuel price regimes. The model includes Russia, the U.S., China, India, the EU, and Japan+ (Japan plus Korea). The model predicts dramatic increases in tax rates in the U.S., EU, India, and Russia. Indeed, the increases are so large as to question their political feasibility let alone their actual collection given the potential for tax avoidance and tax evasion.
Description
License
© 2015 by Seth G. Benzell, Eugene Goryunov, Maria Kazakova, Laurence J. Kotlikoff, Guillermo LaGarda, Kristina Nesterova, and Andrey Zubarev. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source.