Measuring whether political elites or members of the public lead ideological shifts and polarization in the United States
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Abstract
This thesis considers the relationship between public and elite opinion and explores the causes of polarization in American politics. In the first part of the thesis, I review theories that explain potential sources for polarization, and I discuss the effect that polarization has had on specific policy issues in recent history. In the second part of the thesis, I use Gallup data on public opinion and VoteView data on elite ideology in order to run tests that illustrate the origins of polarization. My findings provide evidence that elites are a more influential factor than the general public in determining future ideological shifts. Interestingly, these shifts are often against the dominant elite ideology. My findings also suggest that elites may play a leading role in current political polarization.
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CC0 1.0 Universal