Exit dilemma: the role of private learning on firm survival
Date
2024-02-01
Authors
Cetemen, Doruk
Margaria, Chiara
Version
Published version
OA Version
Citation
D. Cetemen, C. Margaria. 2024. "Exit Dilemma: The Role of Private Learning on Firm Survival" American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, Volume 16, Issue 1, pp.110-154. https://doi.org/10.1257/mic.20220037
Abstract
We study the exit of duopolists from a stochastically declining market. Firms privately learn about the market conditions from observing the stochastic arrival of customers, while exit decisions are publicly observed. A larger firm is more likely to have customers and hence has better information about the market conditions. We provide sufficient conditions for either the smaller or the larger firm to be the first to exit in the unique equilibrium. Because of observational learning, exiting may be a firm's dominant action since continuing operation would bring too optimistic news to the rival, leading it to further postpone its exit. (JEL D21, D43, D83, L21, L25)
Description
License
Copyright © 2024 by the American Economic Association. (https://www.aeaweb.org/journals/policies/copyright)