Development and validation of a prognostic risk score system for COVID-19 inpatients: a multi-center retrospective study in China
Date
2020-11-28
Authors
Yuan, Ye
Sun, Chuan
Tang, Xiuchuan
Cheng, Cheng
Mombaerts, Laurent
Wang, Maolin
Hu, Tao
Sun, Chenyu
Guo, Yuqi
Li, Xiuting
Version
Accepted manuscript
OA Version
Citation
Ye Yuan, Chuan Sun, Xiuchuan Tang, Cheng Cheng, Laurent Mombaerts, Maolin Wang, Tao Hu, Chenyu Sun, Yuqi Guo, Xiuting Li, Hui Xu, Tongxin Ren, Yang Xiao, Yaru Xiao, Hongling Zhu, Honghan Wu, Kezhi Li, Chuming Chen, Yingxia Liu, Zhichao Liang, Zhiguo Cao, Hai-Tao Zhang, Ioannis Ch Paschaldis, Quanying Liu, Jorge Goncalves, Qiang Zhong, Li Yan. 2020. "Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Score System for COVID-19 Inpatients: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study in China." Engineering (Beijing), https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eng.2020.10.013
Abstract
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a worldwide pandemic. Hospitalized patients of COVID-19 suffer from a high mortality rate, motivating the development of convenient and practical methods that allow clinicians to promptly identify high-risk patients. Here, we have developed a risk score using clinical data from 1479 inpatients admitted to Tongji Hospital, Wuhan, China (development cohort) and externally validated with data from two other centers: 141 inpatients from Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China (validation cohort 1) and 432 inpatients from The Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen, Shenzhen, China (validation cohort 2). The risk score is based on three biomarkers that are readily available in routine blood samples and can easily be translated into a probability of death. The risk score can predict the mortality of individual patients more than 12 d in advance with more than 90% accuracy across all cohorts. Moreover, the Kaplan-Meier score shows that patients can be clearly differentiated upon admission as low, intermediate, or high risk, with an area under the curve (AUC) score of 0.9551. In summary, a simple risk score has been validated to predict death in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); it has also been validated in independent cohorts.
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License
© 2020 THE AUTHORS. This pre-proof version of the article is distributed under a Creative Commons NonCommercial NoDerivatives license.