Power, politics, and finance: how multilateral development banks shape ASEAN’s energy transition - insights from Viet Nam and Indonesia

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Abstract
This thesis examines the effectiveness of multilateral development banks (MDBs) in shaping ASEAN’s energy transition through climate finance, focusing on Viet Nam and Indonesia between 2016 and 2023. Using a mixed-methods approach that integrates project-level data analysis with qualitative policy review, the study evaluates how the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and the World Bank Group (WBG) mobilize financial and technical resources in two of ASEAN’s largest economies. The study finds that although Indonesia received more funding, MDB financial commitments contributed a greater share to Viet Nam’s climate finance needs, GDP, and renewable energy (RE) targets.Indonesia had a higher share of technical assistance projects, reflecting the country’s complex regulatory environment. The findings highlight the importance of institutional capacity, and streamlined regulatory and policy frameworks in shaping MDB effectiveness. Regional initiatives such as the ASEAN Catalytic Green Finance Facility (ACGF) illustrate MDBs’ potential to catalyze coordinated efforts in ASEAN’s energy transition. The study concludes that MDB success depends not only on the scale of financial contributions, but also on how well MDBs navigate national and regional policy environments to accelerate the energy transition.
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