Demographics of Primary, Caucus, and General Election Voters
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Citation
Abstract
The objective of this research project is to analyze the demographic characteristics of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio in order to determine if there are significant differences between primary, caucus, and general electorates and to investigate the consequences of these differences for election outcomes. Using a multinomial logit model to estimate vote share predictions for presidential candidates, I find that although the two voting populations may be ideologically and demographically distinct, their final presidential candidate choices are not substantially different.