The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory
Date
2023-03
Authors
Lewis, Abigail S.L.
Rollinson, Christine R.
Allyn, Andrew J.
Ashander, Jaime
Brodie, Stephanie
Brookson, Cole B.
Collins, Elyssa
Dietze, Michael C.
Gallinat, Amanda S.
Juvigny‐Khenafou, Noel
Version
Published version
OA Version
Citation
A.S.L. Lewis, C.R. Rollinson, A.J. Allyn, J. Ashander, S. Brodie, C.B. Brookson, E. Collins, M.C. Dietze, A.S. Gallinat, N. Juvigny‐Khenafou, G. Koren, D.J. McGlinn, H. Moustahfid, J.A. Peters, N.R. Record, C.J. Robbins, J. Tonkin, G.M. Wardle. 2023. "The power of forecasts to advance ecological theory" Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Volume 14, Issue 3, pp.746-756. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.13955
Abstract
Ecological forecasting provides a powerful set of methods for predicting short‐ and long‐term change in living systems. Forecasts are now widely produced, enabling proactive management for many applied ecological problems. However, despite numerous calls for an increased emphasis on prediction in ecology, the potential for forecasting to accelerate ecological theory development remains underrealized.
Here, we provide a conceptual framework describing how ecological forecasts can energize and advance ecological theory. We emphasize the many opportunities for future progress in this area through increased forecast development, comparison and synthesis.
Our framework describes how a forecasting approach can shed new light on existing ecological theories while also allowing researchers to address novel questions. Through rigorous and repeated testing of hypotheses, forecasting can help to refine theories and understand their generality across systems. Meanwhile, synthesizing across forecasts allows for the development of novel theory about the relative predictability of ecological variables across forecast horizons and scales.
We envision a future where forecasting is integrated as part of the toolset used in fundamental ecology. By outlining the relevance of forecasting methods to ecological theory, we aim to decrease barriers to entry and broaden the community of researchers using forecasting for fundamental ecological insight.
Description
License
© 2022 The Authors. Methods in Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International.