Targeting extreme events: complementing near-term ecological forecasting with rapid experiments and regional surveys
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Authors
Redmond, Miranda D.
Law, Darin J.
Field, Jason P.
Meneses, Nashelly
Carroll, Charles J. W.
Wion, Andreas P.
Breshears, David D.
Cobb, Neil S.
Dietze, Michael C.
Gallery, Rachel E.
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Citation
Miranda D Redmond, Darin J Law, Jason P Field, Nashelly Meneses, Charles JW Carroll, Andreas P Wion, David D Breshears, Neil S Cobb, Michael C Dietze, Rachel E Gallery. "Targeting Extreme Events: Complementing Near-Term Ecological Forecasting With Rapid Experiments and Regional Surveys." Frontiers in Environmental Science, Volume 7, https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2019.00183
Abstract
Ecologists are improving predictive capability using near-term ecological forecasts, in
which predictions are made iteratively and publically to increase transparency, rate of
learning, and maximize utility. Ongoing ecological forecasting efforts focus mostly on
long-termdatasets of continuous variables, such as CO2 fluxes, ormore abrupt variables,
such as phenological events or algal blooms. Generally lacking from these forecasting
efforts is the integration of short-term, opportunistic data concurrent with developing
climate extremes such as drought.We posit that incorporating targeted experiments and
regional surveys, implemented rapidly during developing extreme events, into current
forecasting efforts will ultimately enhance our ability to forecast ecological responses
to climate extremes, which are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity.
We highlight a project, “chasing tree die-off,” in which we coupled an experiment with
regional-scale observational field surveys during a developing severe drought to test
and improve forecasts of tree die-off. General insights to consider in incorporating this
approach include: (1) tracking developing climate extremes in near-real time to efficiently
ramp up measurements rapidly and, if feasible, initiate an experiment quickly—including
funding and site selection challenges; (2) accepting uncertainty in projected extreme
climatic events and adjusting sampling design over-time as needed, especially given
the spatially heterogeneous nature of many ecological disturbances; and (3) producing
timely and iterative output. In summary, targeted experiments and regional surveys
implemented rapidly during developing extreme climatic events offer promise to efficiently
(both financially and logistically) improve our ability to forecast ecological responses to
climate extremes.
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"Copyright © 2019 Redmond, Law, Field, Meneses, Carroll, Wion, Breshears, Cobb, Dietze and Gallery. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms."