Seasonal biological carryover dominates northern vegetation growth
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Date
2021-02-12
Authors
Lian, Xu
Piao, Shilong
Chen, Anping
Wang, Kai
Li, Xiangyi
Buermann, Wolfgang
Huntingford, Chris
PeƱuelas, Josep
Xu, Hao
Myneni, Ranga B.
Version
Published version
OA Version
Citation
X. Lian, S. Piao, A. Chen, K. Wang, X. Li, W. Buermann, C. Huntingford, J. PeƱuelas, H. Xu, R.B. Myneni. 2021. "Seasonal biological carryover dominates northern vegetation growth." Nature Communications, Volume 12, Issue 1, pp.983-. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21223-2
Abstract
The state of ecosystems is influenced strongly by their past, and describing this carryover effect is important to accurately forecast their future behaviors. However, the strength and persistence of this carryover effect on ecosystem dynamics in comparison to that of simultaneous environmental drivers are still poorly understood. Here, we show that vegetation growth carryover (VGC), defined as the effect of present states of vegetation on subsequent growth, exerts strong positive impacts on seasonal vegetation growth over the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, this VGC of early growing-season vegetation growth is even stronger than past and co-occurring climate on determining peak-to-late season vegetation growth, and is the primary contributor to the recently observed annual greening trend. The effect of seasonal VGC persists into the subsequent year but not further. Current process-based ecosystem models greatly underestimate the VGC effect, and may therefore underestimate the CO2 sequestration potential of northern vegetation under future warming.
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